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Mercury (Hg) is a naturally occurring element that bonds with organic matter and, when converted to methylmercury, is a potent neurotoxicant. Here we estimate potential future releases of Hg from thawing permafrost for low and high greenhouse gas emissions scenarios using a mechanistic model. By 2200, the high emissions scenario shows annual permafrost Hg emissions to the atmosphere comparable to current global anthropogenic emissions. By 2100, simulated Hg concentrations in the Yukon River increase by 14% for the low emissions scenario, but double for the high emissions scenario. Fish Hg concentrations do not exceed United States Environmental Protection Agency guidelines for the low emissions scenario by 2300, but for the high emissions scenario, fish in the Yukon River exceed EPA guidelines by 2050. Our results indicate minimal impacts to Hg concentrations in water and fish for the low emissions scenario and high impacts for the high emissions scenario.

Northern high‐latitude lakes are undergoing climate‐induced changes including shifts in their hydrologic connectivity with terrestrial ecosystems. How this will impact dissolved organic matter (DOM) biogeochemistry remains uncertain. We examined the drivers of DOM composition for lakes in the Yukon Flats Basin in Alaska, an arid region of low relief that is characteristic of over one‐quarter of circumpolar lake area. Utilizing the vascular plant biomarker lignin, chromophoric dissolved organic matter (CDOM), and ultrahigh‐resolution mass spectrometry, we interpreted DOM compositional changes using lake‐water stable isotope (δ¹⁸O‐H₂O) composition as a proxy for lake hydrologic connectivity with the landscape. We observed a relative decrease in CDOM in more hydrologically isolated lakes (enriched δ¹⁸O‐H₂O) without a corresponding decrease in dissolved organic carbon (DOC) concentration. Although DOC and CDOM were weakly correlated, a significant positive relationship between lignin and CDOM (r²= 0.67) demonstrates that optical parameters are useful for estimating lignin concentration and thus vascular plant contribution to lake DOM. Indicators of allochthonous DOM, including lignin carbon normalized yields, CDOM aromaticity proxies, and relative abundances of polyphenolic and condensed aromatic compound classes, were negatively correlated with δ¹⁸O‐H₂O (r² > 0.45), suggesting there is little allochthonous DOM supplied to many of these hydrologically isolated lakes. We conclude that decreased lake hydrologic connectivity, driven by ongoing climate change (i.e., decreased precipitation, warming temperatures), will reduce allochthonous DOM contributions and shift lakes toward lower CDOM systems with ecosystem‐scale ramifications for heat transfer, photochemical reactions, productivity, and ultimately their biogeochemical function.